USD/JPY - Dollar-yen's range holds for now - 08/22/2024 (GMT)

As in most other major pairs with the dollar, USDJPY has declined recently as it became clearer that the Fed is very likely to cut rates several times before the end of the year assuming the data continue to come in roughly as expected. For the yen, the situation with monetary policy is less clear: after a surprise hike last month, the Bank of Japan might continue to tighten later in the year, but that depends on how the Japanese economy is doing overall now that the immediate crisis of the yen’s weakness has abated somewhat.¥150 is the obvious resistance here while the main technical reference is the 38.2% weekly Fibonacci extension around ¥146. Now there’s no more sign of saturation, with the slow stochastic very close to neutral and the price fairly far inside the lower deviation of Bollinger Bands. The 20 SMA is a possible dynamic resistance since the price hasn’t been able to break above there during the recent bounce.The strong response by buyers on 5 August makes another significant leg down from here questionable. However, there also doesn’t seem to be much appetite to push the price strongly higher either. For now, a range between approximately ¥144 and ¥149 might persist.This is my personal opinion which does not represent the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.