NZD/JPY - NZDJPY might return to the range - 11/28/2024 (GMT)

The fundamental situation for NZDJPY is essentially different from most other pairs with the Kiwi dollar since the Bank of Japan is in a cycle of slow tightening rather than the RBNZ’s relatively aggressive loosening. The probability of a hike by the BoJ on 19 December is now about 60%. Possible new American tariffs on imports would affect both countries, but New Zealand would likely face a much stronger though indirect effect due to its important trade with China.

Although the sideways trend since early October isn’t very well established, the recent downward movement still looks like a fakeout. 27 November’s doji wasn’t followed by a clear down candle and the price is clearly oversold based on Bollinger Bands and the slow stochastic. ¥91 remains the primary reference. A move back above ¥92 seems highly unfavourable in the near future but volume and volatility probably need to increase before there’s another test of the strong support around ¥86.50.

This is my personal opinion which does not represent the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.