EUR/USD - Euro-dollar’s uptrend still active after lower US inflation - 03/12/2025 (GMT)

Euro-dollar’s strong uptrend has continued in the last few days amid general weakness from the dollar and a generally negative reaction to inconsistent messaging on tariffs. Lower American inflation reduces the pressure on the Fed to keep rates high while recent comments from the ECB’s Executive Board seem to reduce the probability of immediate further cuts. As for gold but to a somewhat lesser extent, traders are also looking at reactions to the proposed ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

November 2024’s high around $1.094 could be a key zone of resistance which might resist testing, especially in the context of such aggressive gains in March so far and obvious buying saturation from both Bollinger Bands and the slow stochastic. If the price breaks through there, $1.10 is an obvious potential resistance.

The 100% monthly Fibonacci retracement around $1.07 might function as an important support in the near future, but it’s questionable whether the price will move down that far ahead of the Fed’s meeting. Much like gold it’s potentially challenging for new buyers to find a good entry here; a fairly distant stop after entering during a retracement would be less likely to be triggered prematurely.

This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.