NASDAQ100 INDEX - US Payroll revision suggests more cuts from Federal Reserve. - 08/22/2024 (GMT)

Indices surged as dovish Federal Reserve minutes and a significant downward revision of US payrolls bolstered expectations for a rate cut in September. However, trading volume was at its lowest in six weeks, and shorter-term Treasuries outperformed as two-year yields fell nearly 10 basis points before recovering slightly. Traders are anticipating over 1.00% of rate cuts by the end of 2024, starting in September. Despite that, the market still leaning towards a 25 basis-point cut next month, although a 50 basis-point cut remains possible, depending on the upcoming jobs report. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to revise down US payroll growth by 818,000 jobs for the 12 months through March, the largest revision since 2009. This data suggests that recent jobs numbers might be lower than previously reported, raising questions about the significance of the next jobs report in determining the size of the Fed's rate cut. With the week coming to an end and no major tech earnings release, it is expected the market sentiment will follow closely the narrative of rate cut to gauge the market strength.

On a technical perspective, Nasdaq100 retreated as it approached the channel’s upper bound. The index remains above EMA21, indicating solid upward momentum. If stays above 19550 and EMA21, the index may retest its resistance and channel’s upper bound at 20150.Conversely, it may retrace to around 18900 if the index breaks below 19500.