GOLD - USD - Gold shines brightly but might retrace around the NFP - 10/31/2024 (GMT)

Gold reached a fresh all-time high on 31 October as the outcome of next week’s elections remains highly uncertain and demand for havens continued. The uptrend is very strong but doesn’t currently seem to be as overheated as it had been in the second quarter. The value areas between the main moving averages haven’t generally expanded notably in recent weeks although the slow stochastic displays a clear overbought signal.

The obvious long-term target is $3,000, a round number which coincides fairly closely with the 161.8% monthly Fibonacci extension. It might take some time for the price to reach there: currently gold looks vulnerable in the short term to a better than expected NFP on 1 November, a scenario which seems moderately likely given the low consensus for total nonfarm.

Based on last week’s movements, $2,715 is a possible short-term area of support. The 20 SMA is about to reach there within the next few days. $2,640 around the 50 SMA from Bands is also in view as a support. For now, it seems very unlikely to see a move back to the 100% monthly Fibonacci extension around $2,545, but that’d be possible next week if the NFP is strong and in the unlikely scenario of Donald Trump delivering a particularly solid win.

This is my personal opinion which does not reflect the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.